Expat Community > Ecuador

HGQ2112
Joined 2009
Posts: 1640

Real Estate Report - Bahia de Caráquez

12 years ago

I generally release extremely condensed excerpts from real estate country analysis reports on July 1, 2012, for public consumption. This year, business matters and various personal matters have kept me from being punctual. Utilizing the better late than never theory, I offer them as segmented summaries, with each city having its own thread. I wanted to present them in one Ecuador thread, but it would be huge. Frankly, many people won’t even read them and those that do will likely want to focus on one or two cities. I would say that this format will cause folks to have to “hunt and peck” for data, but I still deemed it the lesser of two evils.

This data is presented only for those who have an interest in their real estate purchase, also being an investment asset. For those just looking to buy a pretty house, no point in reading further. The perspectives shared are not for every buyer. Some have different motivations for their purchase, besides sound investing, and those perspectives should be equally respected.

We have a simple system for rating a locale:

Sell - We recommend selling your asset or portfolio as quickly as possible.
Hold - If you have bought already, hang onto the asset and wait for further market developments. If you have not bought already, then do not buy now, but perhaps begin to look around for future opportunities.
Buy - Means that it is a good time to acquire an initial or additional real estate asset in that sub-market, due to favorable long-term market trends.
Strong Buy - Means that an exceptional market opportunity exists and that the time is right for the immediate consideration of an initial or additional real estate asset acquisition in this sub-market. For those looking at portfolio diversity, spreading assets across “strong buy” markets is advised, prior to focusing on “buy” markets, if investment opportunities is your sole or primary reason for purchasing real estate.

We also employ two trending systems. The first is an upward mobility and downward mobility system intended to dictate if this property market is in an upswing or downswing from the last time we reported on it. Upswing markets will be denoted by an ? and downswing markets by a ?.

Also, we place certain markets “on watch”. This is neither a necessarily good or bad thing, but a caution that a pending review to upgrade or downgrade the market is imminent. We try our best to project whether that review is likely to be positive or negative, but some market dynamics are so complex that this projection is not always 100% accurate. it should be used for guidance and not as statements of certainty.

Without further delay...here is data for the market you selected to view:

Bahia de Caráquez Sell
While we have never used the designation, and never will, if there was a “strong sell”, Bahia would be it. Year after year, I rehash the story in detail (not this year) of the debacle that befell Bahia after the sad, unfortunate earthquake. I will only repeat that the region never recovered, seemingly suffering from a unique societal case of post-traumatic stress disorder. The statement is not too strong.

While Manta’s uneven growth and development over the years was described by me as fits of “start and stop”, Bahia, well, it just stopped...for more than a decade. Recent efforts at growth have been renewed. However, for my money, too little, too late...at least for now. For one, Bahia shares the same lack of consistent identity to which I alluded when covering Manta. In Bahia’s all too brief “hey day”, it was positioning itself to be “Salinas North”. Guayaquil had its Salinas playground and Bahia would serve as the playground for Quito. Bahia was going to duke it out with Salinas for “resort capitol of Ecuador”. I am not sure how that notion started, although I confess that at its zenith, it had made progress in that direction. Still, Bahia (proper) does not have the beach quality associated with Salinas, nor the ready accessibility from Quito that Salinas has from Guayaquil. In addition to that, Salinas was already a well established resort market and Bahia was trying to build that momentum without the aforementioned advantages of Salinas, during very different economic times. I am not sure then, or now, that this was ever the best path of progress for Bahia. However, if it ever was, the earthquake changed all that.

An emerging economy, hoping to build its future on resort tourism, cannot sit idly by, however deep and tragic its circumstances, and let a decade pass it by. Tourism crowds are way too fickle and in a lush and beautiful country like Ecuador, resort towns can pop up, as readily as banana trees. The momentum was gone. The Salinas growth story continued. Montañita arose from the mud - literally. DeCameron brought its resort to Mompiche. Casablanca, for better or worse, solidified, for all purposes, becoming the town of Same... and... then... there is the Atacames/Tonsupa strip and its vibrant evolution. I know you still hear it whispered...hey...talk to the more committed (or obstinate) and you may still hear it shouted, “Bahia will be the resort community for Quito.” No it will not. No point in sugar-coating that reality. With Salinas perched to finally get its airport commercial terminal built, it will just provide another option to the “Quito crowd” - an option that the majority will likely eschew. Surprised? You shouldn’t be, if you have been watching the evolution of Atacames/Tonsupa. Atacames is like a grown up version of Montañita, with nearby Tonsupa serving as the coastal residential center which houses the vacation crowd that frequents the Atacames commercial establishments. It is a deadly combination to Bahia’s dream of being the resort community for Quito. Tonsupa, residentially, resembles Salinas 20 years ago and Atacames provides a scaled down version, for now, of the Montañita mayhem. Quito residents...and, as importantly, Quito investment dollars, are pouring into the Atacames/Tonsupa region, not Bahia. Bahia, needs to look at other future growth options, if it is ever to recover from the deadly earthquake’s aftermath. A new Comisariato and, a possible, SuperMaxi are not the answer. A clear, community supported identity is required.

What hope may exist is not embodied, in the recent and lone new residential high-rise development project which has finally emerged in Bahia, but rather in the much more subdued, subtle evolution of the Casa Ceibo project. I will stop here, and briefly state, “I have no direct or indirect financial interest in Casa Ceibo, on any level, in any form...whatsoever.” I say that because I may sound like I am gushing about the place to the point of questioning my objectivity or motive. Casa Ceibo is nothing more than a hotel and spa. A hotel which could find a home anywhere along the Ecuador coast and still shine, not for its size or opulent presence, but for its simplicity of quality design, service and ambience. It totals a mere 18 rooms. Not exactly the type of giant, one would equate with my suggestion as the turning point catalyst for Bahia. Still, I believe that Bahia’s best option for the future is to carve out a niche market as an eco-tourism “hot spot” and with Casa Ceibo leading the way, perhaps an “upscale eco-tourism” destination location. Not something grander, on the full resort scale potential of Salinas, or Bahia’s more immediate and much better developed Atacames/Tonsupa competitor, but something more serene, more relaxed, less “touristy” in the more obvious way of a Montañita. If Bahia is to have some hope, it should take its cue from Casa Ceibo. However, until that new hope manifests itself in an organized community-wide economic development plan, use any strength in the Bahia market caused by the newly built residential high-rise and the early success of Casa Ceibo to...sell...sell...sell...and fast. I do not know how much of a bounce Bahia has, before it succumbs again to its own peculiar post-traumatic state.

Hector G, Quintana
[email protected]
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -- George Orwell, “1984”

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